A strategy to assess spillover risk of bat SARS-related coronaviruses in Southeast Asia

Cecilia A. Sánchez, Hongying Li, Kendra L. Phelps, Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio, Lin-Fa Wang, Peng Zhou, Zheng-Li Shi, Kevin J. Olival and Peter Daszak ()
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Cecilia A. Sánchez: EcoHealth Alliance
Hongying Li: EcoHealth Alliance
Kendra L. Phelps: EcoHealth Alliance
Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio: George Mason University
Lin-Fa Wang: Duke-NUS Medical School
Peng Zhou: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Zheng-Li Shi: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Kevin J. Olival: EcoHealth Alliance
Peter Daszak: EcoHealth Alliance

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Emerging diseases caused by coronaviruses of likely bat origin (e.g., SARS, MERS, SADS, COVID-19) have disrupted global health and economies for two decades. Evidence suggests that some bat SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) could infect people directly, and that their spillover is more frequent than previously recognized. Each zoonotic spillover of a novel virus represents an opportunity for evolutionary adaptation and further spread; therefore, quantifying the extent of this spillover may help target prevention programs. We derive current range distributions for known bat SARSr-CoV hosts and quantify their overlap with human populations. We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human viral seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that a median of 66,280 people (95% CI: 65,351–67,131) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in Southeast Asia. These data on the geography and scale of spillover can be used to target surveillance and prevention programs for potential future bat-CoV emergence.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31860-w

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