Dynamics of competing SARS-CoV-2 variants during the Omicron epidemic in England

Oliver Eales (), Leonardo Oliveira Martins, Andrew J. Page, Haowei Wang, Barbara Bodinier, David Tang, David Haw, Jakob Jonnerby, Christina Atchison, Deborah Ashby, Wendy Barclay, Graham Taylor, Graham Cooke, Helen Ward, Ara Darzi, Steven Riley, Paul Elliott (), Christl A. Donnelly () and Marc Chadeau-Hyam ()
Additional contact information
Oliver Eales: Imperial College London
Leonardo Oliveira Martins: Quadram Institute
Andrew J. Page: Quadram Institute
Haowei Wang: Imperial College London
Barbara Bodinier: Imperial College London
David Tang: Imperial College London
David Haw: Imperial College London
Jakob Jonnerby: Imperial College London
Christina Atchison: Imperial College London
Deborah Ashby: Imperial College London
Wendy Barclay: Imperial College London
Graham Taylor: Imperial College London
Graham Cooke: Imperial College London
Helen Ward: Imperial College London
Ara Darzi: Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust
Steven Riley: Imperial College London
Paul Elliott: Imperial College London
Christl A. Donnelly: Imperial College London
Marc Chadeau-Hyam: Imperial College London

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been characterised by the regular emergence of genomic variants. With natural and vaccine-induced population immunity at high levels, evolutionary pressure favours variants better able to evade SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies. The Omicron variant (first detected in November 2021) exhibited a high degree of immune evasion, leading to increased infection rates worldwide. However, estimates of the magnitude of this Omicron wave have often relied on routine testing data, which are prone to several biases. Using data from the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study, a series of cross-sectional surveys assessing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England, we estimated the dynamics of England’s Omicron wave (from 9 September 2021 to 1 March 2022). We estimate an initial peak in national Omicron prevalence of 6.89% (5.34%, 10.61%) during January 2022, followed by a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections as the more transmissible Omicron sub-lineage, BA.2 replaced BA.1 and BA.1.1. Assuming the emergence of further distinct variants, intermittent epidemics of similar magnitudes may become the ‘new normal’.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32096-4

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