Land use change and carbon emissions of a transformation to timber cities

Abhijeet Mishra (), Florian Humpenöder, Galina Churkina, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Felicitas Beier, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Hermann Lotze-Campen and Alexander Popp
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Abhijeet Mishra: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association
Florian Humpenöder: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association
Galina Churkina: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association
Christopher P. O. Reyer: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association
Felicitas Beier: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association
Benjamin Leon Bodirsky: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association
Hermann Lotze-Campen: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association
Alexander Popp: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of Leibniz Association

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Using engineered wood for construction has been discussed for climate change mitigation. It remains unclear where and in which way the additional demand for wooden construction material shall be fulfilled. Here we assess the global and regional impacts of increased demand for engineered wood on land use and associated CO2 emissions until 2100 using an open-source land system model. We show that if 90% of the new urban population would be housed in newly built urban mid-rise buildings with wooden constructions, 106 Gt of additional CO2 could be saved by 2100. Forest plantations would need to expand by up to 149 Mha by 2100 and harvests from unprotected natural forests would increase. Our results indicate that expansion of timber plantations for wooden buildings is possible without major repercussions on agricultural production. Strong governance and careful planning are required to ensure a sustainable transition to timber cities even if frontier forests and biodiversity hotspots are protected.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32244-w

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