Process-oriented analysis of dominant sources of uncertainty in the land carbon sink

Michael O’Sullivan (), Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Vladislav Bastrikov, Christine Delire, Daniel S. Goll, Atul Jain, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Benjamin Poulter, Roland Séférian, Hanqin Tian, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue and Sönke Zaehle
Additional contact information
Michael O’Sullivan: University of Exeter
Pierre Friedlingstein: University of Exeter
Stephen Sitch: University of Exeter
Peter Anthoni: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research
Almut Arneth: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research
Vivek K. Arora: Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada
Vladislav Bastrikov: Université Paris-Saclay
Christine Delire: CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS
Daniel S. Goll: Université Paris-Saclay
Atul Jain: University of Illinois
Etsushi Kato: Institute of Applied Energy (IAE)
Daniel Kennedy: Terrestrial Sciences Section
Jürgen Knauer: Western Sydney University
Sebastian Lienert: University of Bern
Danica Lombardozzi: Terrestrial Sciences Section
Patrick C. McGuire: University of Reading
Joe R. Melton: Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada
Julia E. M. S. Nabel: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Julia Pongratz: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Benjamin Poulter: Biospheric Sciences Laboratory
Roland Séférian: CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS
Hanqin Tian: Boston College
Nicolas Vuichard: Université Paris-Saclay
Anthony P. Walker: Climate Change Science Institute & Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Lab
Wenping Yuan: Sun Yat-sen University
Xu Yue: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST)
Sönke Zaehle: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract The observed global net land carbon sink is captured by current land models. All models agree that atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen deposition driven gains in carbon stocks are partially offset by climate and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) losses. However, there is a lack of consensus in the partitioning of the sink between vegetation and soil, where models do not even agree on the direction of change in carbon stocks over the past 60 years. This uncertainty is driven by plant productivity, allocation, and turnover response to atmospheric CO2 (and to a smaller extent to LULCC), and the response of soil to LULCC (and to a lesser extent climate). Overall, differences in turnover explain ~70% of model spread in both vegetation and soil carbon changes. Further analysis of internal plant and soil (individual pools) cycling is needed to reduce uncertainty in the controlling processes behind the global land carbon sink.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32416-8

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