Tracking 21st century anthropogenic and natural carbon fluxes through model-data integration

Selma Bultan (), Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Kerstin Hartung, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Liang Xu, Sassan Saatchi and Julia Pongratz
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Selma Bultan: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität
Julia E. M. S. Nabel: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Kerstin Hartung: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität
Raphael Ganzenmüller: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität
Liang Xu: California Institute of Technology
Sassan Saatchi: California Institute of Technology
Julia Pongratz: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract Monitoring the implementation of emission commitments under the Paris agreement relies on accurate estimates of terrestrial carbon fluxes. Here, we assimilate a 21st century observation-based time series of woody vegetation carbon densities into a bookkeeping model (BKM). This approach allows us to disentangle the observation-based carbon fluxes by terrestrial woody vegetation into anthropogenic and environmental contributions. Estimated emissions (from land-use and land cover changes) between 2000 and 2019 amount to 1.4 PgC yr−1, reducing the difference to other carbon cycle model estimates by up to 88% compared to previous estimates with the BKM (without the data assimilation). Our estimates suggest that the global woody vegetation carbon sink due to environmental processes (1.5 PgC yr−1) is weaker and more susceptible to interannual variations and extreme events than estimated by state-of-the-art process-based carbon cycle models. These findings highlight the need to advance model-data integration to improve estimates of the terrestrial carbon cycle under the Global Stocktake.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32456-0

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