Regional connectivity drove bidirectional transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Middle East during travel restrictions

Edyth Parker (), Catelyn Anderson, Mark Zeller, Ahmad Tibi, Jennifer L. Havens, Geneviève Laroche, Mehdi Benlarbi, Ardeshir Ariana, Refugio Robles-Sikisaka, Alaa Abdel Latif, Alexander Watts, Abdalla Awidi, Saied A. Jaradat, Karthik Gangavarapu, Karthik Ramesh, Ezra Kurzban, Nathaniel L. Matteson, Alvin X. Han, Laura D. Hughes, Michelle McGraw, Emily Spencer, Laura Nicholson, Kamran Khan, Marc A. Suchard, Joel O. Wertheim, Shirlee Wohl, Marceline Côté, Amid Abdelnour, Kristian G. Andersen and Issa Abu-Dayyeh ()
Additional contact information
Edyth Parker: The Scripps Research Institute
Catelyn Anderson: The Scripps Research Institute
Mark Zeller: The Scripps Research Institute
Ahmad Tibi: Biolab Diagnostic Laboratories
Jennifer L. Havens: University of California San Diego
Geneviève Laroche: University of Ottawa
Mehdi Benlarbi: University of Ottawa
Ardeshir Ariana: University of Ottawa
Refugio Robles-Sikisaka: The Scripps Research Institute
Alaa Abdel Latif: The Scripps Research Institute
Alexander Watts: Bluedot
Abdalla Awidi: The University of Jordan
Saied A. Jaradat: Jordan University of Science and Technology
Karthik Gangavarapu: David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles
Karthik Ramesh: The Scripps Research Institute
Ezra Kurzban: The Scripps Research Institute
Nathaniel L. Matteson: The Scripps Research Institute
Alvin X. Han: University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Institute for Infection and Immunity
Laura D. Hughes: The Scripps Research Institute
Michelle McGraw: The Scripps Research Institute
Emily Spencer: Scripps Research Translational Institute
Laura Nicholson: Scripps Research Translational Institute
Kamran Khan: Bluedot
Marc A. Suchard: David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles
Joel O. Wertheim: University of California San Diego
Shirlee Wohl: The Scripps Research Institute
Marceline Côté: University of Ottawa
Amid Abdelnour: Biolab Diagnostic Laboratories
Kristian G. Andersen: The Scripps Research Institute
Issa Abu-Dayyeh: Biolab Diagnostic Laboratories

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract Regional connectivity and land travel have been identified as important drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, the generalizability of this finding is understudied outside of well-sampled, highly connected regions. In this study, we investigated the relative contributions of regional and intercontinental connectivity to the source-sink dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 for Jordan and the Middle East. By integrating genomic, epidemiological and travel data we show that the source of introductions into Jordan was dynamic across 2020, shifting from intercontinental seeding in the early pandemic to more regional seeding for the travel restrictions period. We show that land travel, particularly freight transport, drove introduction risk during the travel restrictions period. High regional connectivity and land travel also drove Jordan’s export risk. Our findings emphasize regional connectedness and land travel as drivers of transmission in the Middle East.

Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-32536-1

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32536-1

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