The combination of genomic offset and niche modelling provides insights into climate change-driven vulnerability

Yilin Chen, Zhiyong Jiang, Ping Fan, Per G. P. Ericson, Gang Song, Xu Luo, Fumin Lei () and Yanhua Qu ()
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Yilin Chen: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Zhiyong Jiang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Ping Fan: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Per G. P. Ericson: Swedish Museum of Natural History
Gang Song: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xu Luo: Southwest Forestry University
Fumin Lei: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yanhua Qu: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Abstract Global warming is increasingly exacerbating biodiversity loss. Populations locally adapted to spatially heterogeneous environments may respond differentially to climate change, but this intraspecific variation has only recently been considered when modelling vulnerability under climate change. Here, we incorporate intraspecific variation in genomic offset and ecological niche modelling to estimate climate change-driven vulnerability in two bird species in the Sino-Himalayan Mountains. We found that the cold-tolerant populations show higher genomic offset but risk less challenge for niche suitability decline under future climate than the warm-tolerant populations. Based on a genome-niche index estimated by combining genomic offset and niche suitability change, we identified the populations with the least genome-niche interruption as potential donors for evolutionary rescue, i.e., the populations tolerant to climate change. We evaluated potential rescue routes via a landscape genetic analysis. Overall, we demonstrate that the integration of genomic offset, niche suitability modelling, and landscape connectivity can improve climate change-driven vulnerability assessments and facilitate effective conservation management.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32546-z

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