Revealing the spatiotemporal complexity of the magnitude distribution and b-value during an earthquake sequence

Marcus Herrmann (), Ester Piegari and Warner Marzocchi
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Marcus Herrmann: dell’Ambiente e delle Risorse; Università degli Studi di Napoli ‘Federico II’
Ester Piegari: dell’Ambiente e delle Risorse; Università degli Studi di Napoli ‘Federico II’
Warner Marzocchi: dell’Ambiente e delle Risorse; Università degli Studi di Napoli ‘Federico II’

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract The Magnitude–Frequency-Distribution (MFD) of earthquakes is typically modeled with the (tapered) Gutenberg–Richter relation. The main parameter of this relation, the b-value, controls the relative rate of small and large earthquakes. Resolving spatiotemporal variations of the b-value is critical to understanding the earthquake occurrence process and improving earthquake forecasting. However, this variation is not well understood. Here we present remarkable MFD variability during the complex 2016/17 central Italy sequence using a high-resolution earthquake catalog. Isolating seismically active volumes (‘clusters’) reveals that the MFD differed in nearby clusters, varied or remained constant in time depending on the cluster, and increased in b-value in the cluster where the largest earthquake eventually occurred. These findings suggest that the fault system’s heterogeneity and complexity influence the MFD. Our findings raise the question “b-value of what?”: interpreting and using MFD variability needs a spatiotemporal scale that is physically meaningful, like the one proposed here.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32755-6

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