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Mitigation of China’s carbon neutrality to global warming

Longhui Li, Yue Zhang, Tianjun Zhou, Kaicun Wang, Can Wang, Tao Wang, Linwang Yuan, Kangxin An, Chenghu Zhou and Guonian Lü ()
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Longhui Li: Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application
Yue Zhang: Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application
Tianjun Zhou: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Kaicun Wang: Peking University
Can Wang: Tsinghua University
Tao Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Linwang Yuan: Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application
Kangxin An: Tsinghua University
Chenghu Zhou: Chinese Academy of Science
Guonian Lü: Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-7

Abstract: Abstract Projecting mitigations of carbon neutrality from individual countries in relation to future global warming is of great importance for depicting national climate responsibility but is poorly quantified. Here, we show that China’s carbon neutrality (CNCN) can individually mitigate global warming by 0.48 °C and 0.40 °C, which account for 14% and 9% of the global warming over the long term under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Further incorporating changes in CH4 and N2O emissions in association with CNCN together will alleviate global warming by 0.21 °C and 0.32 °C for SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 over the long term, and even by 0.18 °C for SSP2-4.5 over the mid-term, but no significant impacts are shown for all SSPs in the near term. Divergent responses in alleviated warming are seen at regional scales. The results provide a useful reference for the global stocktake, which assesses the collective progress towards the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33047-9

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