Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades

Raphaëlle Klitting (), Liana E. Kafetzopoulou, Wim Thiery, Gytis Dudas, Sophie Gryseels, Anjali Kotamarthi, Bram Vrancken, Karthik Gangavarapu, Mambu Momoh, John Demby Sandi, Augustine Goba, Foday Alhasan, Donald S. Grant, Sylvanus Okogbenin, Ephraim Ogbaini-Emovo, Robert F. Garry, Allison R. Smither, Mark Zeller, Matthias G. Pauthner, Michelle McGraw, Laura D. Hughes, Sophie Duraffour, Stephan Günther, Marc A. Suchard, Philippe Lemey, Kristian G. Andersen and Simon Dellicour ()
Additional contact information
Raphaëlle Klitting: The Scripps Research Institute
Liana E. Kafetzopoulou: KU Leuven - University of Leuven
Wim Thiery: Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Gytis Dudas: Vilnius University
Sophie Gryseels: University of Antwerp
Anjali Kotamarthi: The Scripps Research Institute
Bram Vrancken: KU Leuven - University of Leuven
Karthik Gangavarapu: The Scripps Research Institute
Mambu Momoh: Eastern Technical University of Sierra Leone
John Demby Sandi: Ministry of Health and Sanitation
Augustine Goba: Ministry of Health and Sanitation
Foday Alhasan: Ministry of Health and Sanitation
Donald S. Grant: Ministry of Health and Sanitation
Sylvanus Okogbenin: Irrua Specialist Teaching Hospital
Ephraim Ogbaini-Emovo: Irrua Specialist Teaching Hospital
Robert F. Garry: Tulane University, School of Medicine
Allison R. Smither: Tulane University, School of Medicine
Mark Zeller: The Scripps Research Institute
Matthias G. Pauthner: The Scripps Research Institute
Michelle McGraw: The Scripps Research Institute
Laura D. Hughes: Structural and Computational Biology, The Scripps Research Institute
Sophie Duraffour: Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine
Stephan Günther: Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine
Marc A. Suchard: University of California
Philippe Lemey: KU Leuven - University of Leuven
Kristian G. Andersen: The Scripps Research Institute
Simon Dellicour: KU Leuven - University of Leuven

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Abstract Lassa fever is a severe viral hemorrhagic fever caused by a zoonotic virus that repeatedly spills over to humans from its rodent reservoirs. It is currently not known how climate and land use changes could affect the endemic area of this virus, currently limited to parts of West Africa. By exploring the environmental data associated with virus occurrence using ecological niche modelling, we show how temperature, precipitation and the presence of pastures determine ecological suitability for virus circulation. Based on projections of climate, land use, and population changes, we find that regions in Central and East Africa will likely become suitable for Lassa virus over the next decades and estimate that the total population living in ecological conditions that are suitable for Lassa virus circulation may drastically increase by 2070. By analysing geotagged viral genomes using spatially-explicit phylogeography and simulating virus dispersal, we find that in the event of Lassa virus being introduced into a new suitable region, its spread might remain spatially limited over the first decades.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33112-3

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