Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate

Tao Geng, Wenju Cai (), Lixin Wu (), Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang, Zhao Jing, Bolan Gan, Yun Yang, Shujun Li, Shengpeng Wang, Zhaohui Chen and Michael J. McPhaden
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Tao Geng: Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao)
Wenju Cai: Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao)
Lixin Wu: Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao)
Agus Santoso: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Guojian Wang: Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao)
Zhao Jing: Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao)
Bolan Gan: Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao)
Yun Yang: Beijing Normal University
Shujun Li: Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao)
Shengpeng Wang: Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao)
Zhaohui Chen: Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao)
Michael J. McPhaden: NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) features strong warm events in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EP), or mild warm and strong cold events in the central Pacific (CP), with distinct impacts on global climates. Under transient greenhouse warming, models project increased sea surface temperature (SST) variability of both ENSO regimes, but the timing of emergence out of internal variability remains unknown for either regime. Here we find increased EP-ENSO SST variability emerging by around 2030 ± 6, more than a decade earlier than that of CP-ENSO, and approximately four decades earlier than that previously suggested without separating the two regimes. The earlier EP-ENSO emergence results from a stronger increase in EP-ENSO rainfall response, which boosts the signal of increased SST variability, and is enhanced by ENSO non-linear atmospheric feedback. Thus, increased ENSO SST variability under greenhouse warming is likely to emerge first in the eastern than central Pacific, and decades earlier than previously anticipated.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33930-5

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