Sea level extremes and compounding marine heatwaves in coastal Indonesia

Weiqing Han (), Lei Zhang, Gerald A. Meehl, Shoichiro Kido, Tomoki Tozuka, Yuanlong Li, Michael J. McPhaden, Aixue Hu, Anny Cazenave, Nan Rosenbloom, Gary Strand, B. Jason West and Wen Xing
Additional contact information
Weiqing Han: University of Colorado
Lei Zhang: University of Colorado
Gerald A. Meehl: the National Center for Atmospheric Research
Shoichiro Kido: Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology
Tomoki Tozuka: Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology
Yuanlong Li: University of Colorado
Michael J. McPhaden: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Aixue Hu: the National Center for Atmospheric Research
Anny Cazenave: Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales (LEGOS)
Nan Rosenbloom: the National Center for Atmospheric Research
Gary Strand: the National Center for Atmospheric Research
B. Jason West: Inc., NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Wen Xing: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Low-lying island nations like Indonesia are vulnerable to sea level Height EXtremes (HEXs). When compounded by marine heatwaves, HEXs have larger ecological and societal impact. Here we combine observations with model simulations, to investigate the HEXs and Compound Height-Heat Extremes (CHHEXs) along the Indian Ocean coast of Indonesia in recent decades. We find that anthropogenic sea level rise combined with decadal climate variability causes increased occurrence of HEXs during 2010–2017. Both HEXs and CHHEXs are driven by equatorial westerly and longshore northwesterly wind anomalies. For most HEXs, which occur during December-March, downwelling favorable northwest monsoon winds are enhanced but enhanced vertical mixing limits surface warming. For most CHHEXs, wind anomalies associated with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and co-occurring La Niña weaken the southeasterlies and cooling from coastal upwelling during May-June and November-December. Our findings emphasize the important interplay between anthropogenic warming and climate variability in affecting regional extremes.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34003-3

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