Epidemic spreading under mutually independent intra- and inter-host pathogen evolution

Xiyun Zhang (), Zhongyuan Ruan, Muhua Zheng, Jie Zhou, Stefano Boccaletti and Baruch Barzel
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Xiyun Zhang: Jinan University
Zhongyuan Ruan: Institute of Cyberspace Security, Zhejiang University of Technology
Muhua Zheng: Jiangsu University
Jie Zhou: East China Normal University
Stefano Boccaletti: CNR - Institute of Complex Systems
Baruch Barzel: Bar-Ilan University

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract The dynamics of epidemic spreading is often reduced to the single control parameter R0 (reproduction-rate), whose value, above or below unity, determines the state of the contagion. If, however, the pathogen evolves as it spreads, R0 may change over time, potentially leading to a mutation-driven spread, in which an initially sub-pandemic pathogen undergoes a breakthrough mutation. To predict the boundaries of this pandemic phase, we introduce here a modeling framework to couple the inter-host network spreading patterns with the intra-host evolutionary dynamics. We find that even in the extreme case when these two process are driven by mutually independent selection forces, mutations can still fundamentally alter the pandemic phase-diagram. The pandemic transitions, we show, are now shaped, not just by R0, but also by the balance between the epidemic and the evolutionary timescales. If mutations are too slow, the pathogen prevalence decays prior to the appearance of a critical mutation. On the other hand, if mutations are too rapid, the pathogen evolution becomes volatile and, once again, it fails to spread. Between these two extremes, however, we identify a broad range of conditions in which an initially sub-pandemic pathogen can breakthrough to gain widespread prevalence.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34027-9

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