Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity

Yaoping Wang, Jiafu Mao (), Forrest M. Hoffman, Céline J. W. Bonfils, Hervé Douville, Mingzhou Jin, Peter E. Thornton, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Xiaoying Shi, Haishan Chen, Stan D. Wullschleger, Shilong Piao and Yongjiu Dai
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Yaoping Wang: University of Tennessee
Jiafu Mao: Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Forrest M. Hoffman: Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Céline J. W. Bonfils: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Hervé Douville: Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS
Mingzhou Jin: University of Tennessee
Peter E. Thornton: Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Daniel M. Ricciuto: Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Xiaoying Shi: Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Haishan Chen: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
Stan D. Wullschleger: Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Shilong Piao: Peking University
Yongjiu Dai: Sun Yat-sen University

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Current knowledge of the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity has considerable uncertainty. Using Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) calculated from multi-source merged data sets, we find widespread drying in the global midlatitudes, and wetting in the northern subtropics and in spring between 45°N–65°N, during 1971–2016. Formal detection and attribution analysis shows that human forcings, especially greenhouse gases, contribute significantly to the changes in 0–10 cm SSI during August–November, and 0–100 cm during September–April. We further develop and apply an emergent constraint method on the future SSI’s signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios and trends under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5. The results show continued significant presence of human forcings and more rapid drying in 0–10 cm than 0–100 cm. Our findings highlight the predominant human contributions to spatiotemporally heterogenous terrestrial aridification, providing a basis for drought and flood risk management.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34071-5

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