Reconstructed eight-century streamflow in the Tibetan Plateau reveals contrasting regional variability and strong nonstationarity

Yenan Wu, Di Long (), Upmanu Lall, Bridget R. Scanlon, Fuqiang Tian, Xudong Fu, Jianshi Zhao, Jianyun Zhang, Hao Wang and Chunhong Hu
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Yenan Wu: Tsinghua University
Di Long: Tsinghua University
Upmanu Lall: Columbia University
Bridget R. Scanlon: The University of Texas at Austin
Fuqiang Tian: Tsinghua University
Xudong Fu: Tsinghua University
Jianshi Zhao: Tsinghua University
Jianyun Zhang: Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute
Hao Wang: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
Chunhong Hu: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Short instrumental streamflow records in the South and East Tibetan Plateau (SETP) limit understanding of the full range and long-term variability in streamflow, which could greatly impact freshwater resources for about one billion people downstream. Here we reconstruct eight centuries (1200−2012 C.E.) of annual streamflow from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas in five headwater regions across the SETP. We find two regional patterns, including northern (Yellow, Yangtze, and Lancang-Mekong) and southern (Nu-Salween and Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra) SETP regions showing ten contrasting wet and dry periods, with a dividing line of regional moisture regimes at ~32°−33°N identified. We demonstrate strong temporal nonstationarity in streamflow variability, and reveal much greater high/low mean flow periods in terms of duration and magnitude: mostly pre-instrumental wetter conditions in the Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra and drier conditions in other rivers. By contrast, the frequency of extreme flows during the instrumental periods for the Yangtze, Nu-Salween, and Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra has increased by ~18% relative to the pre-instrumental periods.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34221-9

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