Peak refreezing in the Greenland firn layer under future warming scenarios

Brice Noël (), Jan T. M. Lenaerts, William H. Lipscomb, Katherine Thayer-Calder and Michiel R. Broeke
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Brice Noël: Utrecht University
Jan T. M. Lenaerts: University of Colorado Boulder
William H. Lipscomb: Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Katherine Thayer-Calder: Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Michiel R. Broeke: Utrecht University

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Firn (compressed snow) covers approximately 90 $$\%$$ % of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and currently retains about half of rain and meltwater through refreezing, reducing runoff and subsequent mass loss. The loss of firn could mark a tipping point for sustained GrIS mass loss, since decades to centuries of cold summers would be required to rebuild the firn buffer. Here we estimate the warming required for GrIS firn to reach peak refreezing, using 51 climate simulations statistically downscaled to 1 km resolution, that project the long-term firn layer evolution under multiple emission scenarios (1850–2300). We predict that refreezing stabilises under low warming scenarios, whereas under extreme warming, refreezing could peak and permanently decline starting in southwest Greenland by 2100, and further expanding GrIS-wide in the early 22 $${}^{{nd}}$$ n d century. After passing this peak, the GrIS contribution to global sea level rise would increase over twenty-fold compared to the last three decades.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34524-x

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