Surface faulting earthquake clustering controlled by fault and shear-zone interactions

Zoë K. Mildon (), Gerald P. Roberts, Joanna P. Faure Walker, Joakim Beck, Ioannis Papanikolaou, Alessandro M. Michetti, Shinji Toda, Francesco Iezzi, Lucy Campbell, Kenneth J. W. McCaffrey, Richard Shanks, Claudia Sgambato, Jennifer Robertson, Marco Meschis and Eutizio Vittori
Additional contact information
Zoë K. Mildon: University of Plymouth
Gerald P. Roberts: University of London
Joanna P. Faure Walker: University College London
Joakim Beck: 4700 King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST)
Ioannis Papanikolaou: Agricultural University of Athens
Alessandro M. Michetti: Università degli Studi dell’Insubria
Shinji Toda: Tohoku University
Francesco Iezzi: University of Naples “Federico II”
Lucy Campbell: University of Hull
Kenneth J. W. McCaffrey: University of Durham
Richard Shanks: Scottish Universities Environmental Research Centre
Claudia Sgambato: University of London
Jennifer Robertson: University of London
Marco Meschis: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Palermo
Eutizio Vittori: CNR, Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract Surface faulting earthquakes are known to cluster in time from historical and palaeoseismic studies, but the mechanism(s) responsible for clustering, such as fault interaction, strain-storage, and evolving dynamic topography, are poorly quantified, and hence not well understood. We present a quantified replication of observed earthquake clustering in central Italy. Six active normal faults are studied using 36Cl cosmogenic dating, revealing out-of-phase periods of high or low surface slip-rate on neighboring structures that we interpret as earthquake clusters and anticlusters. Our calculations link stress transfer caused by slip averaged over clusters and anti-clusters on coupled fault/shear-zone structures to viscous flow laws. We show that (1) differential stress fluctuates during fault/shear-zone interactions, and (2) these fluctuations are of sufficient magnitude to produce changes in strain-rate on viscous shear zones that explain slip-rate changes on their overlying brittle faults. These results suggest that fault/shear-zone interactions are a plausible explanation for clustering, opening the path towards process-led seismic hazard assessments.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34821-5

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