A predictable prospect of the South Asian summer monsoon

Tuantuan Zhang, Xingwen Jiang (), Song Yang, Junwen Chen and Zhenning Li
Additional contact information
Tuantuan Zhang: Sun Yat-sen University, Southern Laboratory of Ocean Science and Engineering (Zhuhai)
Xingwen Jiang: China Meteorological Administration
Song Yang: Sun Yat-sen University, Southern Laboratory of Ocean Science and Engineering (Zhuhai)
Junwen Chen: Shenzhen Wiselec Technology Co., Ltd.
Zhenning Li: The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Prediction of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) has remained a challenge for both scientific research and operational climate prediction for decades. By identifying two dominant modes of the SASM, here we show that the unsatisfactory prediction may be due to the fact that the existing SASM indices are mostly related to the less predictable second mode. The first mode, in fact, is highly predictable. It is physically linked to the variation of the Indian monsoon trough coupled with large rainfall anomalies over core monsoon zone and the northern Bay of Bengal. An index is constructed as a physical proxy of this first mode, which can be well predicted one season in advance, with an overall skill of 0.698 for 1979–2020. This result suggests a predictable prospect of the SASM, and we recommend the new index for real-time monitoring and prediction of the SASM.

Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-34881-7 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-34881-7

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34881-7

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().