Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand

Hamish Clarke (), Rachael H. Nolan, Victor Resco Dios, Ross Bradstock, Anne Griebel, Shiva Khanal and Matthias M. Boer
Additional contact information
Hamish Clarke: University of Wollongong
Rachael H. Nolan: NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub
Victor Resco Dios: Universitat de Lleida
Ross Bradstock: University of Wollongong
Anne Griebel: NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub
Shiva Khanal: Western Sydney University
Matthias M. Boer: Western Sydney University

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Levels of fire activity and severity that are unprecedented in the instrumental record have recently been observed in forested regions around the world. Using a large sample of daily fire events and hourly climate data, here we show that fire activity in all global forest biomes responds strongly and predictably to exceedance of thresholds in atmospheric water demand, as measured by maximum daily vapour pressure deficit. The climatology of vapour pressure deficit can therefore be reliably used to predict forest fire risk under projected future climates. We find that climate change is projected to lead to widespread increases in risk, with at least 30 additional days above critical thresholds for fire activity in forest biomes on every continent by 2100 under rising emissions scenarios. Escalating forest fire risk threatens catastrophic carbon losses in the Amazon and major population health impacts from wildfire smoke in south Asia and east Africa.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34966-3

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