Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5 increases mortality risks and burdens in Brazil

Tingting Ye, Rongbin Xu, Xu Yue, Gongbo Chen, Pei Yu, Micheline S. Z. S. Coêlho, Paulo H. N. Saldiva, Michael J. Abramson, Yuming Guo () and Shanshan Li ()
Additional contact information
Tingting Ye: Monash University
Rongbin Xu: Monash University
Xu Yue: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST)
Gongbo Chen: Monash University
Pei Yu: Monash University
Micheline S. Z. S. Coêlho: Urban Health Laboratory University of São Paulo, Faculty of Medicine/INSPER
Paulo H. N. Saldiva: Urban Health Laboratory University of São Paulo, Faculty of Medicine/INSPER
Michael J. Abramson: Monash University
Yuming Guo: Monash University
Shanshan Li: Monash University

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract To assess mortality risks and burdens associated with short-term exposure to wildfire-related fine particulate matter with diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), we collect daily mortality data from 2000 to 2016 for 510 immediate regions in Brazil, the most wildfire-prone area. We integrate data from multiple sources with a chemical transport model at the global scale to isolate daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2.5 at a 0.25 × 0.25 resolution. With a two-stage time-series approach, we estimate (i) an increase of 3.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.4, 3.9%) in all-cause mortality, 2.6% (95%CI: 1.5, 3.8%) in cardiovascular mortality, and 7.7% (95%CI: 5.9, 9.5) in respiratory mortality over 0–14 days with each 10 μg/m3 increase in daily wildfire-related PM2.5; (ii) 0.65% of all-cause, 0.56% of cardiovascular, and 1.60% of respiratory mortality attributable to acute exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5, corresponding to 121,351 all-cause deaths, 29,510 cardiovascular deaths, and 31,287 respiratory deaths during the study period. In this study, we find stronger associations in females and adults aged ≥ 60 years, and geographic difference in the mortality risks and burdens.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35326-x

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