Stratospheric impacts on dust transport and air pollution in West Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean

Ying Dai, Peter Hitchcock (), Natalie M. Mahowald, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Douglas S. Hamilton, Longlei Li, Beatrice Marticorena, Maria Kanakidou, Nikolaos Mihalopoulos and Adwoa Aboagye-Okyere
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Ying Dai: Cornell University
Peter Hitchcock: Cornell University
Natalie M. Mahowald: Cornell University
Daniela I. V. Domeisen: University of Lausanne
Douglas S. Hamilton: Cornell University
Longlei Li: Cornell University
Beatrice Marticorena: Universités Paris Est-Paris Diderot-Paris 7
Maria Kanakidou: University of Crete
Nikolaos Mihalopoulos: University of Crete
Adwoa Aboagye-Okyere: Cornell University

Nature Communications, 2022, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Saharan dust intrusions strongly impact Atlantic and Mediterranean coastal regions. Today, most operational dust forecasts extend only 2–5 days. Here we show that on timescales of weeks to months, North African dust emission and transport are impacted by sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), which establish a negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like surface signal. Chemical transport models show a large-scale dipolar dust response to SSWs, with the burden in the Eastern Mediterranean enhanced up to 30% and a corresponding reduction in West Africa. Observations of inhalable particulate (PM10) concentrations and aerosol optical depth confirm this dipole. On average, a single SSW causes 680–2460 additional premature deaths in the Eastern Mediterranean and prevents 1180–2040 premature deaths in West Africa from exposure to dust-source fine particulate (PM2.5). Currently, SSWs are predictable 1–2 weeks in advance. Altogether, the stratosphere represents an important source of subseasonal predictability for air quality over West Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35403-1

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