Temperature-related mortality in China from specific injury

Jianxiong Hu, Guanhao He, Ruilin Meng, Weiwei Gong, Zhoupeng Ren, Heng Shi, Ziqiang Lin, Tao Liu, Fangfang Zeng, Peng Yin, Guoxia Bai, Mingfang Qin, Zhulin Hou, Xiaomei Dong, Chunliang Zhou, Zhuoma Pingcuo, Yize Xiao, Min Yu, Biao Huang, Xiaojun Xu, Lifeng Lin, Jianpeng Xiao, Jieming Zhong, Donghui Jin, Qinglong Zhao, Yajie Li, Cangjue Gama, Yiqing Xu, Lingshuang Lv, Weilin Zeng, Xing Li, Liying Luo, Maigeng Zhou, Cunrui Huang and Wenjun Ma ()
Additional contact information
Jianxiong Hu: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Guanhao He: Jinan University
Ruilin Meng: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Weiwei Gong: Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Zhoupeng Ren: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Heng Shi: Tibet Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Ziqiang Lin: Jinan University
Tao Liu: Jinan University
Fangfang Zeng: Jinan University
Peng Yin: The National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention
Guoxia Bai: Tibet Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Mingfang Qin: Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Zhulin Hou: Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Xiaomei Dong: Jinan University
Chunliang Zhou: Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Zhuoma Pingcuo: Tibet Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Yize Xiao: Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Min Yu: Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Biao Huang: Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Xiaojun Xu: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Lifeng Lin: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Jianpeng Xiao: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Jieming Zhong: Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Donghui Jin: Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Qinglong Zhao: Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Yajie Li: Tibet Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Cangjue Gama: Tibet Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Yiqing Xu: Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Lingshuang Lv: Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Weilin Zeng: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Xing Li: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Liying Luo: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Maigeng Zhou: The National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention
Cunrui Huang: Tsinghua University
Wenjun Ma: Jinan University

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Injury poses heavy burden on public health, accounting for nearly 8% of all deaths globally, but little evidence on the role of climate change on injury exists. We collect data during 2013-2019 in six provinces of China to examine the effects of temperature on injury mortality, and to project future mortality burden attributable to temperature change driven by climate change based on the assumption of constant injury mortality and population scenario. The results show that a 0.50% (95% confident interval (CI): 0.13%–0.88%) increase of injury mortality risk for each 1 °C rise in daily temperature, with higher risk for intentional injury (1.13%, 0.55%–1.71%) than that for unintentional injury (0.40%, 0.04%–0.77%). Compared to the 2010s, total injury deaths attributable to temperature change in China would increase 156,586 (37,654–272,316) in the 2090 s under representative concentration pathways 8.5 scenario with the highest for transport injury (64,764, 8,517–115,743). Populations living in Western China, people aged 15–69 years, and male may suffer more injury mortality burden from increased temperature caused by climate change. Our findings may be informative for public health policy development to effectively adapt to climate change.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35462-4

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