Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19

Jonas Dehning, Sebastian B. Mohr, Sebastian Contreras, Philipp Dönges, Emil N. Iftekhar, Oliver Schulz, Philip Bechtle () and Viola Priesemann ()
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Jonas Dehning: Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization
Sebastian B. Mohr: Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization
Sebastian Contreras: Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization
Philipp Dönges: Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization
Emil N. Iftekhar: Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization
Oliver Schulz: Max Planck Institute for Physics
Philip Bechtle: Universität Bonn
Viola Priesemann: Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract Large-scale events like the UEFA Euro 2020 football (soccer) championship offer a unique opportunity to quantify the impact of gatherings on the spread of COVID-19, as the number and dates of matches played by participating countries resembles a randomized study. Using Bayesian modeling and the gender imbalance in COVID-19 data, we attribute 840,000 (95% CI: [0.39M, 1.26M]) COVID-19 cases across 12 countries to the championship. The impact depends non-linearly on the initial incidence, the reproduction number R, and the number of matches played. The strongest effects are seen in Scotland and England, where as much as 10,000 primary cases per million inhabitants occur from championship-related gatherings. The average match-induced increase in R was 0.46 [0.18, 0.75] on match days, but important matches caused an increase as large as +3. Altogether, our results provide quantitative insights that help judge and mitigate the impact of large-scale events on pandemic spread.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35512-x

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