Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model

Jun-Young Park (), Fabian Schloesser (), Axel Timmermann, Dipayan Choudhury, June-Yi Lee and Arjun Babu Nellikkattil
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Jun-Young Park: Institute for Basic Science
Fabian Schloesser: University of Hawaii
Axel Timmermann: Institute for Basic Science
Dipayan Choudhury: Institute for Basic Science
June-Yi Lee: Institute for Basic Science
Arjun Babu Nellikkattil: Institute for Basic Science

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Climate-forced, offline ice-sheet model simulations have been used extensively in assessing how much ice-sheets can contribute to future global sea-level rise. Typically, these model projections do not account for the two-way interactions between ice-sheets and climate. To quantify the impact of ice-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, here we conduct greenhouse warming simulations with a coupled global climate-ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity. Following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1-1.9, 2-4.5, 5-8.5 emission scenarios, the model simulations ice-sheet contributions to global sea-level rise by 2150 of 0.2 ± 0.01, 0.5 ± 0.01 and 1.4 ± 0.1 m, respectively. Antarctic ocean-ice-sheet-ice-shelf interactions enhance future subsurface basal melting, while freshwater-induced atmospheric cooling reduces surface melting and iceberg calving. The combined effect is likely to decelerate global sea-level rise contributions from Antarctica relative to the uncoupled climate-forced ice-sheet model configuration. Our results demonstrate that estimates of future sea-level rise fundamentally depend on the complex interactions between ice-sheets, icebergs, ocean and the atmosphere.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36051-9

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