Silver lining to a climate crisis in multiple prospects for alleviating crop waterlogging under future climates

Ke Liu, Matthew Tom Harrison (), Haoliang Yan, Liu De Li, Holger Meinke, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Bin Wang, Bin Peng, Kaiyu Guan, Jonas Jaegermeyr, Enli Wang, Feng Zhang, Xiaogang Yin, Sotirios Archontoulis, Lixiao Nie, Ana Badea, Jianguo Man, Daniel Wallach, Jin Zhao, Ana Borrego Benjumea, Shah Fahad, Xiaohai Tian, Weilu Wang, Fulu Tao, Zhao Zhang, Reimund Rötter, Youlu Yuan, Min Zhu, Panhong Dai, Jiangwen Nie, Yadong Yang, Yunbo Zhang and Meixue Zhou
Additional contact information
Ke Liu: University of Tasmania
Matthew Tom Harrison: University of Tasmania
Haoliang Yan: State Key Laboratory of Cotton Biology, Institute of Cotton Research of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Liu De Li: New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute
Holger Meinke: University of Tasmania
Gerrit Hoogenboom: University of Florida
Bin Wang: New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute
Bin Peng: University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign
Kaiyu Guan: University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign
Jonas Jaegermeyr: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Enli Wang: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Agriculture and Food
Feng Zhang: Lanzhou University
Xiaogang Yin: China Agricultural University
Sotirios Archontoulis: Iowa State University
Lixiao Nie: Hainan University
Ana Badea: Brandon Research and Development Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Jianguo Man: Huazhong Agricultural University
Daniel Wallach: National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRAE), UMR AGIR
Jin Zhao: China Agricultural University
Ana Borrego Benjumea: Brandon Research and Development Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Shah Fahad: Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan
Xiaohai Tian: Yangtze University
Weilu Wang: Yangzhou University
Fulu Tao: Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Zhao Zhang: Beijing Normal University
Reimund Rötter: University of Göttingen, Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS)
Youlu Yuan: State Key Laboratory of Cotton Biology, Institute of Cotton Research of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Min Zhu: Brandon Research and Development Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Panhong Dai: School of Computer Science & Information Engineering, Anyang Institute of Technology
Jiangwen Nie: China Agricultural University
Yadong Yang: China Agricultural University
Yunbo Zhang: Yangtze University
Meixue Zhou: University of Tasmania

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Extreme weather events threaten food security, yet global assessments of impacts caused by crop waterlogging are rare. Here we first develop a paradigm that distils common stress patterns across environments, genotypes and climate horizons. Second, we embed improved process-based understanding into a farming systems model to discern changes in global crop waterlogging under future climates. Third, we develop avenues for adapting cropping systems to waterlogging contextualised by environment. We find that yield penalties caused by waterlogging increase from 3–11% historically to 10–20% by 2080, with penalties reflecting a trade-off between the duration of waterlogging and the timing of waterlogging relative to crop stage. We document greater potential for waterlogging-tolerant genotypes in environments with longer temperate growing seasons (e.g., UK, France, Russia, China), compared with environments with higher annualised ratios of evapotranspiration to precipitation (e.g., Australia). Under future climates, altering sowing time and adoption of waterlogging-tolerant genotypes reduces yield penalties by 18%, while earlier sowing of winter genotypes alleviates waterlogging by 8%. We highlight the serendipitous outcome wherein waterlogging stress patterns under present conditions are likely to be similar to those in the future, suggesting that adaptations for future climates could be designed using stress patterns realised today.

Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36129-4

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