Likely accelerated weakening of Atlantic overturning circulation emerges in optimal salinity fingerprint

Chenyu Zhu (), Zhengyu Liu (), Shaoqing Zhang () and Lixin Wu
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Chenyu Zhu: Ocean University of China
Zhengyu Liu: Ohio State University
Shaoqing Zhang: Ocean University of China
Lixin Wu: Ocean University of China

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract The long-term response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to anthropogenic forcing has been difficult to detect from the short direct measurements available due to strong interdecadal variability. Here, we present observational and modeling evidence for a likely accelerated weakening of the AMOC since the 1980s under the combined forcing of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols. This likely accelerated AMOC weakening signal can be detected in the AMOC fingerprint of salinity pileup remotely in the South Atlantic, but not in the classic warming hole fingerprint locally in the North Atlantic, because the latter is contaminated by the “noise” of interdecadal variability. Our optimal salinity fingerprint retains much of the signal of the long-term AMOC trend response to anthropogenic forcing, while dynamically filtering out shorter climate variability. Given the ongoing anthropogenic forcing, our study indicates a potential further acceleration of AMOC weakening with associated climate impacts in the coming decades.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36288-4

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