Variability conceals emerging trend in 100yr projections of UK local hourly rainfall extremes

Elizabeth J. Kendon (), Erich M. Fischer and Chris J. Short
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Elizabeth J. Kendon: Met Office Hadley Centre
Erich M. Fischer: ETH Zurich
Chris J. Short: Met Office Hadley Centre

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract Extreme precipitation is projected to intensify with warming, but how this will manifest locally through time is uncertain. Here, we exploit an ensemble of convection-permitting transient simulations to examine the emerging signal in local hourly rainfall extremes over 100-years. We show rainfall events in the UK exceeding 20 mm/h that can cause flash floods are 4-times as frequent by 2070s under high emissions; in contrast, a coarser resolution regional model shows only a 2.6x increase. With every degree of regional warming, the intensity of extreme downpours increases by 5-15%. Regional records of local hourly rainfall occur 40% more often than in the absence of warming. However, these changes are not realised as a smooth trend. Instead, as a result of internal variability, extreme years with record-breaking events may be followed by multiple decades with no new local rainfall records. The tendency for extreme years to cluster poses key challenges for communities trying to adapt.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36499-9

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