Non-monotonic changes in Asian Water Towers’ streamflow at increasing warming levels

Tong Cui, Yukun Li, Long Yang, Yi Nan, Kunbiao Li, Mahmut Tudaji, Hongchang Hu, Di Long, Muhammad Shahid, Ammara Mubeen, Zhihua He, Bin Yong, Hui Lu, Chao Li, Guangheng Ni, Chunhong Hu and Fuqiang Tian ()
Additional contact information
Tong Cui: Tsinghua University
Yukun Li: Tsinghua University
Long Yang: Nanjing University
Yi Nan: Tsinghua University
Kunbiao Li: Tsinghua University
Mahmut Tudaji: Tsinghua University
Hongchang Hu: Tsinghua University
Di Long: Tsinghua University
Muhammad Shahid: University of Engineering and Technology
Ammara Mubeen: University of Engineering and Technology
Zhihua He: University of Saskatchewan
Bin Yong: Hohai University
Hui Lu: Tsinghua University
Chao Li: East China Normal University
Guangheng Ni: Tsinghua University
Chunhong Hu: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
Fuqiang Tian: Tsinghua University

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Previous projections show consistent increases in river flows of Asian Water Towers under future climate change. Here we find non-monotonic changes in river flows for seven major rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau at the warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 3.0 °C based on an observation-constrained hydrological model. The annual mean streamflow for seven rivers at 1.5 °C warming level decreases by 0.1–3.2% relative to the present-day climate condition, and increases by 1.5–12% at 3.0 °C warming level. The shifting river flows for the Yellow, Yangtze, Brahmaputra, and Ganges are mostly influenced by projected increases in rainfall, but those for the Mekong, Salween, and Indus are dictated by the relative changes in rainfall, snowmelt and glacier melt. Reduced river flows in a moderately warmed climate threaten water security in riparian countries, while elevated flood risks are expected with further temperature increases over the Tibetan Plateau.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36804-6

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