Clarifying the effect of biodiversity on productivity in natural ecosystems with longitudinal data and methods for causal inference

Laura E. Dee (), Paul Ferraro, Christopher N. Severen, Kaitlin A. Kimmel, Elizabeth T. Borer, Jarrett E. K. Byrnes, Adam Thomas Clark, Yann Hautier, Andrew Hector, Xavier Raynaud, Peter B. Reich, Alexandra J. Wright, Carlos A. Arnillas, Kendi F. Davies, Andrew MacDougall, Akira S. Mori, Melinda D. Smith, Peter B. Adler, Jonathan D. Bakker, Kate A. Brauman, Jane Cowles, Kimberly Komatsu, Johannes M. H. Knops, Rebecca L. McCulley, Joslin L. Moore, John W. Morgan, Timothy Ohlert, Sally A. Power, Lauren L. Sullivan, Carly Stevens and Michel Loreau
Additional contact information
Laura E. Dee: University of Colorado
Christopher N. Severen: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Kaitlin A. Kimmel: University of Colorado
Elizabeth T. Borer: University of Minnesota
Jarrett E. K. Byrnes: University of Massachusetts Boston
Adam Thomas Clark: University of Graz
Yann Hautier: Utrecht University
Andrew Hector: University of Oxford
Xavier Raynaud: Sorbonne Université, Université Paris Cité, UPEC, IRD, CNRS, INRA, Institute of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, iEES Paris
Peter B. Reich: University of Michigan
Alexandra J. Wright: California State University Los Angeles
Carlos A. Arnillas: University of Toronto at Scarborough
Kendi F. Davies: University of Colorado
Andrew MacDougall: University of Guelph, Guelph
Akira S. Mori: The University of Tokyo
Melinda D. Smith: Colorado State University
Peter B. Adler: Utah State University
Jonathan D. Bakker: University of Washington
Kate A. Brauman: The University of Alabama
Jane Cowles: University of Minnesota
Kimberly Komatsu: Smithsonian Environmental Research Center
Johannes M. H. Knops: Xián Jiaotong-Liverpool University
Rebecca L. McCulley: University of Kentucky
Joslin L. Moore: Monash University
John W. Morgan: La Trobe University
Timothy Ohlert: Colorado State University
Sally A. Power: Western Sydney University
Lauren L. Sullivan: Michigan State University
Carly Stevens: Lancaster University
Michel Loreau: Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, CNRS

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Causal effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functions can be estimated using experimental or observational designs — designs that pose a tradeoff between drawing credible causal inferences from correlations and drawing generalizable inferences. Here, we develop a design that reduces this tradeoff and revisits the question of how plant species diversity affects productivity. Our design leverages longitudinal data from 43 grasslands in 11 countries and approaches borrowed from fields outside of ecology to draw causal inferences from observational data. Contrary to many prior studies, we estimate that increases in plot-level species richness caused productivity to decline: a 10% increase in richness decreased productivity by 2.4%, 95% CI [−4.1, −0.74]. This contradiction stems from two sources. First, prior observational studies incompletely control for confounding factors. Second, most experiments plant fewer rare and non-native species than exist in nature. Although increases in native, dominant species increased productivity, increases in rare and non-native species decreased productivity, making the average effect negative in our study. By reducing the tradeoff between experimental and observational designs, our study demonstrates how observational studies can complement prior ecological experiments and inform future ones.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37194-5

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