Atmospheric CO2 forcing on Mediterranean biomes during the past 500 kyrs

Andreas Koutsodendris (), Vasilis Dakos, William J. Fletcher, Maria Knipping, Ulrich Kotthoff, Alice M. Milner, Ulrich C. Müller, Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr, Oliver A. Kern, Laurin Kolb, Polina Vakhrameeva, Sabine Wulf, Kimon Christanis, Gerhard Schmiedl and Jörg Pross
Additional contact information
Andreas Koutsodendris: Heidelberg University
Vasilis Dakos: Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE
William J. Fletcher: The University of Manchester
Maria Knipping: University of Hohenheim
Ulrich Kotthoff: Hamburg University
Alice M. Milner: Royal Holloway University of London
Ulrich C. Müller: Parlamentsstraße 32
Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr: Heidelberg University
Oliver A. Kern: Heidelberg University
Laurin Kolb: Heidelberg University
Polina Vakhrameeva: Heidelberg University
Sabine Wulf: University of Portsmouth
Kimon Christanis: University of Patras
Gerhard Schmiedl: Hamburg University
Jörg Pross: Heidelberg University

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract There is growing concern on the survival of Mediterranean forests under the projected near-future droughts as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Here we determine the resilience of Mediterranean forests across the entire range of climatic boundary conditions realized during the past 500 kyrs based on continuous pollen and geochemical records of (sub)centennial-scale resolution from drillcores from Tenaghi Philippon, Greece. Using convergent cross-mapping we provide empirical confirmation that global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) may affect Mediterranean vegetation through forcing on moisture availability. Our analysis documents two stable vegetation regimes across the wide range of CO2 and moisture levels realized during the past four glacial-interglacial cycles, with abrupt shifts from forest to steppe biomes occurring when a threshold in precipitation is crossed. Our approach highlights that a CO2-driven moisture decrease in the near future may bear an impending risk for abrupt vegetation regime shifts prompting forest loss in the Mediterranean region.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37388-x

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