Future Indian Ocean warming patterns

Sahil Sharma, Kyung-Ja Ha (), Ryohei Yamaguchi, Keith B. Rodgers, Axel Timmermann and Eui-Seok Chung
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Sahil Sharma: Institute of Basic Science
Kyung-Ja Ha: Institute of Basic Science
Ryohei Yamaguchi: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Keith B. Rodgers: Institute of Basic Science
Axel Timmermann: Institute of Basic Science
Eui-Seok Chung: Korea Polar Research Institute

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Most future projections conducted with coupled general circulation models simulate a non-uniform Indian Ocean warming, with warming hotspots occurring in the Arabian Sea (AS) and the southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO). But little is known about the underlying physical drivers. Here, we are using a suite of large ensemble simulations of the Community Earth System Model 2 to elucidate the causes of non-uniform Indian Ocean warming. Strong negative air-sea interactions in the Eastern Indian Ocean are responsible for a future weakening of the zonal sea surface temperature gradient, resulting in a slowdown of the Indian Ocean Walker circulation and the generation of southeasterly wind anomalies over the AS. These contribute to anomalous northward ocean heat transport, reduced evaporative cooling, a weakening in upper ocean vertical mixing and an enhanced AS future warming. In contrast, the projected warming in the SEIO is related to a reduction of low-cloud cover and an associated increase in shortwave radiation. Therefore, the regional character of air-sea interactions plays a key role in promoting future large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation anomalies with implications for society and ecosystems far outside the Indian Ocean realm.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37435-7

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