Widespread global disparities between modelled and observed mid-depth ocean currents

Fenzhen Su (), Rong Fan, Fengqin Yan, Michael Meadows, Vincent Lyne, Po Hu, Xiangzhou Song, Tianyu Zhang, Zenghong Liu, Chenghu Zhou, Tao Pei, Xiaomei Yang, Yunyan Du, Zexun Wei, Fan Wang, Yiquan Qi and Fei Chai
Additional contact information
Fenzhen Su: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Rong Fan: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Fengqin Yan: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Michael Meadows: Nanjing University
Vincent Lyne: IMAS-Hobart, University of Tasmania
Po Hu: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xiangzhou Song: Hohai University
Tianyu Zhang: Guangdong Ocean University
Zenghong Liu: Ministry of Natural Resources
Chenghu Zhou: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Tao Pei: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xiaomei Yang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yunyan Du: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Zexun Wei: Ministry of Natural Resources
Fan Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yiquan Qi: Hohai University
Fei Chai: Ministry of Natural Resources

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract The mid-depth ocean circulation is critically linked to actual changes in the long-term global climate system. However, in the past few decades, predictions based on ocean circulation models highlight the lack of data, knowledge, and long-term implications in climate change assessment. Here, using 842,421 observations produced by Argo floats from 2001-2020, and Lagrangian simulations, we show that only 3.8% of the mid-depth oceans, including part of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, can be regarded as accurately modelled, while other regions exhibit significant underestimations in mean current velocity. Knowledge of ocean circulation is generally more complete in the low-latitude oceans but is especially poor in high latitude regions. Accordingly, we propose improvements in forecasting, model representation of stochasticity, and enhancement of observations of ocean currents. The study demonstrates that knowledge and model representations of global circulation are substantially compromised by inaccuracies of significant magnitude and direction, with important implications for modelled predictions of currents, temperature, carbon dioxide sequestration, and sea-level rise trends.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37841-x

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