Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations

Emanuele Bevacqua (), Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Aglaé Jézéquel, Flavio Lehner, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou and Jakob Zscheischler
Additional contact information
Emanuele Bevacqua: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research—UFZ
Laura Suarez-Gutierrez: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Aglaé Jézéquel: Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Ecole des Ponts
Flavio Lehner: Cornell University
Mathieu Vrac: Université Paris-Saclay
Pascal Yiou: Université Paris-Saclay
Jakob Zscheischler: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research—UFZ

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-16

Abstract: Abstract Societally relevant weather impacts typically result from compound events, which are rare combinations of weather and climate drivers. Focussing on four event types arising from different combinations of climate variables across space and time, here we illustrate that robust analyses of compound events — such as frequency and uncertainty analysis under present-day and future conditions, event attribution to climate change, and exploration of low-probability-high-impact events — require data with very large sample size. In particular, the required sample is much larger than that needed for analyses of univariate extremes. We demonstrate that Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensemble (SMILE) simulations from multiple climate models, which provide hundreds to thousands of years of weather conditions, are crucial for advancing our assessments of compound events and constructing robust model projections. Combining SMILEs with an improved physical understanding of compound events will ultimately provide practitioners and stakeholders with the best available information on climate risks.

Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-37847-5 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-37847-5

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37847-5

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().