Sediment delivery to sustain the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta under climate change and anthropogenic impacts

Jessica L. Raff (), Steven L. Goodbred (), Jennifer L. Pickering, Ryan S. Sincavage, John C. Ayers, Md. Saddam Hossain, Carol A. Wilson, Chris Paola, Michael S. Steckler, Dhiman R. Mondal, Jean-Louis Grimaud, Celine Jo Grall, Kimberly G. Rogers, Kazi Matin Ahmed, Syed Humayun Akhter, Brandee N. Carlson, Elizabeth L. Chamberlain, Meagan Dejter, Jonathan M. Gilligan, Richard P. Hale, Mahfuzur R. Khan, Md. Golam Muktadir, Md. Munsur Rahman and Lauren A. Williams
Additional contact information
Jessica L. Raff: Vanderbilt University
Steven L. Goodbred: Vanderbilt University
Jennifer L. Pickering: The University of Memphis
Ryan S. Sincavage: Radford University
John C. Ayers: Vanderbilt University
Md. Saddam Hossain: The University of Memphis
Carol A. Wilson: Louisiana State University
Chris Paola: University of Minnesota
Michael S. Steckler: Columbia University
Dhiman R. Mondal: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Jean-Louis Grimaud: PSL University/ MINES Paris
Celine Jo Grall: Columbia University
Kimberly G. Rogers: University of Colorado
Kazi Matin Ahmed: University of Dhaka
Syed Humayun Akhter: Bangladesh Open University, Board Bazar
Brandee N. Carlson: University of Houston
Elizabeth L. Chamberlain: Wageningen University
Meagan Dejter: Vanderbilt University
Jonathan M. Gilligan: Vanderbilt University
Richard P. Hale: Old Dominion University
Mahfuzur R. Khan: University of Dhaka
Md. Golam Muktadir: Bangladesh University of Professionals
Md. Munsur Rahman: Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Lauren A. Williams: Vanderbilt University

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract The principal nature-based solution for offsetting relative sea-level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is the unabated delivery, dispersal, and deposition of the rivers’ ~1 billion-tonne annual sediment load. Recent hydrological transport modeling suggests that strengthening monsoon precipitation in the 21st century could increase this sediment delivery 34-60%; yet other studies demonstrate that sediment could decline 15-80% if planned dams and river diversions are fully implemented. We validate these modeled ranges by developing a comprehensive field-based sediment budget that quantifies the supply of Ganges-Brahmaputra river sediment under varying Holocene climate conditions. Our data reveal natural responses in sediment supply comparable to previously modeled results and suggest that increased sediment delivery may be capable of offsetting accelerated sea-level rise. This prospect for a naturally sustained Ganges-Brahmaputra delta presents possibilities beyond the dystopian future often posed for this system, but the implementation of currently proposed dams and diversions would preclude such opportunities.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38057-9

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