Flood hazard potential reveals global floodplain settlement patterns

Laura Devitt (), Jeffrey Neal, Gemma Coxon, James Savage and Thorsten Wagener
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Laura Devitt: University of Bristol
Jeffrey Neal: University of Bristol
Gemma Coxon: University of Bristol
James Savage: Fathom
Thorsten Wagener: University of Bristol

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Flooding is one of the most common natural hazards, causing disastrous impacts worldwide. Stress-testing the global human-Earth system to understand the sensitivity of floodplains and population exposure to a range of plausible conditions is one strategy to identify where future changes to flooding or exposure might be most critical. This study presents a global analysis of the sensitivity of inundated areas and population exposure to varying flood event magnitudes globally for 1.2 million river reaches. Here we show that topography and drainage areas correlate with flood sensitivities as well as with societal behaviour. We find clear settlement patterns in which floodplains most sensitive to frequent, low magnitude events, reveal evenly distributed exposure across hazard zones, suggesting that people have adapted to this risk. In contrast, floodplains most sensitive to extreme magnitude events have a tendency for populations to be most densely settled in these rarely flooded zones, being in significant danger from potentially increasing hazard magnitudes given climate change.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38297-9

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