China can be self-sufficient in maize production by 2030 with optimal crop management

Ning Luo, Qingfeng Meng (), Puyu Feng, Ziren Qu, Yonghong Yu, Liu De Li, Christoph Müller and Pu Wang
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Ning Luo: China Agricultural University
Qingfeng Meng: China Agricultural University
Puyu Feng: China Agricultural University
Ziren Qu: China Agricultural University
Yonghong Yu: China Agricultural University
Liu De Li: Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute
Christoph Müller: Member of the Leibniz Association
Pu Wang: China Agricultural University

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Population growth and economic development in China has increased the demand for food and animal feed, raising questions regarding China’s future maize production self-sufficiency. Here, we address this challenge by combining data-driven projections with a machine learning method on data from 402 stations, with data from 87 field experiments across China. Current maize yield would be roughly doubled with the implementation of optimal planting density and management. In the 2030 s, we estimate a 52% yield improvement through dense planting and soil improvement under a high-end climate forcing Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP585), compared with a historical climate trend. Based on our results, yield gains from soil improvement outweigh the adverse effects of climate change. This implies that China can be self-sufficient in maize by using current cropping areas. Our results challenge the view of yield stagnation in most global areas and provide an example of how food security can be achieved with optimal crop-soil management under future climate change scenarios.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38355-2

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