Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

Xuezhi Tan (), Xinxin Wu, Zeqin Huang, Jianyu Fu, Xuejin Tan, Simin Deng, Yaxin Liu, Thian Yew Gan and Bingjun Liu
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Xuezhi Tan: Sun Yat-sen University
Xinxin Wu: Sun Yat-sen University
Zeqin Huang: Sun Yat-sen University
Jianyu Fu: Sun Yat-sen University
Xuejin Tan: Sun Yat-sen University
Simin Deng: Sun Yat-sen University
Yaxin Liu: Sun Yat-sen University
Thian Yew Gan: University of Alberta
Bingjun Liu: Sun Yat-sen University

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Abstract Precipitation whiplash, including abrupt shifts between wet and dry extremes, can cause large adverse impacts on human and natural systems. Here we quantify observed and projected changes in characteristics of sub-seasonal precipitation whiplash and investigate the role of individual anthropogenic influences on these changes. Results show that the occurrence frequency of global precipitation whiplash is projected to be 2.56 ± 0.16 times higher than in 1979–2019 by the end of the 21st Century, with increasingly rapid and intense transitions between two extremes. The most dramatic increases of whiplash show in the polar and monsoon regions. Changes in precipitation whiplash show a much higher percentage change than precipitation totals. In historical simulations, anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol emissions have increased and decreased precipitation whiplash occurrences, respectively. By 2079, anthropogenic GHGs are projected to increase 55 ± 4% of the occurrences risk of precipitation whiplash, which is driven by shifts in circulation patterns conducive to precipitation extremes.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38510-9

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