Influence of El Niño on the variability of global shoreline position

Rafael Almar (), Julien Boucharel (), Marcan Graffin, Gregoire Ondoa Abessolo, Gregoire Thoumyre, Fabrice Papa, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Jennifer Montano, Erwin W. J. Bergsma, Mohamed Wassim Baba and Fei-Fei Jin
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Rafael Almar: LEGOS (Université de Toulouse/CNRS/IRD/UPS)
Julien Boucharel: LEGOS (Université de Toulouse/CNRS/IRD/UPS)
Marcan Graffin: LEGOS (Université de Toulouse/CNRS/IRD/UPS)
Gregoire Ondoa Abessolo: University of Douala
Gregoire Thoumyre: LEGOS (Université de Toulouse/CNRS/IRD/UPS)
Fabrice Papa: LEGOS (Université de Toulouse/CNRS/IRD/UPS)
Roshanka Ranasinghe: IHE Delft Institute for Water Education
Jennifer Montano: GET (Université de Toulouse/CNRS/IRD/UPS)
Erwin W. J. Bergsma: Earth Observation Lab, French Space Agency (CNES)
Mohamed Wassim Baba: Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P)
Fei-Fei Jin: Department of atmospheric sciences (University of Hawaii at Manoa)

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Coastal zones are fragile and complex dynamical systems that are increasingly under threat from the combined effects of anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Using global satellite derived shoreline positions from 1993 to 2019 and a variety of reanalysis products, here we show that shorelines are under the influence of three main drivers: sea-level, ocean waves and river discharge. While sea level directly affects coastal mobility, waves affect both erosion/accretion and total water levels, and rivers affect coastal sediment budgets and salinity-induced water levels. By deriving a conceptual global model that accounts for the influence of dominant modes of climate variability on these drivers, we show that interannual shoreline changes are largely driven by different ENSO regimes and their complex inter-basin teleconnections. Our results provide a new framework for understanding and predicting climate-induced coastal hazards.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38742-9

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