The role of vaccination and public awareness in forecasts of Mpox incidence in the United Kingdom

Samuel P. C. Brand (), Massimo Cavallaro, Fergus Cumming, Charlie Turner, Isaac Florence, Paula Blomquist, Joe Hilton, Laura M. Guzman-Rincon, Thomas House, D. James Nokes and Matt J. Keeling
Additional contact information
Samuel P. C. Brand: The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER)
Massimo Cavallaro: The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER)
Charlie Turner: United Kingdom Health Security Agency
Isaac Florence: United Kingdom Health Security Agency
Paula Blomquist: United Kingdom Health Security Agency
Joe Hilton: The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER)
Laura M. Guzman-Rincon: The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER)
Thomas House: University of Manchester
D. James Nokes: The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER)
Matt J. Keeling: The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER)

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Beginning in May 2022, Mpox virus spread rapidly in high-income countries through close human-to-human contact primarily amongst communities of gay, bisexual and men who have sex with men (GBMSM). Behavioural change arising from increased knowledge and health warnings may have reduced the rate of transmission and modified Vaccinia-based vaccination is likely to be an effective longer-term intervention. We investigate the UK epidemic presenting 26-week projections using a stochastic discrete-population transmission model which includes GBMSM status, rate of formation of new sexual partnerships, and clique partitioning of the population. The Mpox cases peaked in mid-July; our analysis is that the decline was due to decreased transmission rate per infected individual and infection-induced immunity among GBMSM, especially those with the highest rate of new partners. Vaccination did not cause Mpox incidence to turn over, however, we predict that a rebound in cases due to behaviour reversion was prevented by high-risk group-targeted vaccination.

Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38816-8 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-38816-8

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38816-8

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().