Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

Christine Howard (), Emma-Liina Marjakangas, Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez, Pietro Milanesi, Aleksandre Abuladze, Karen Aghababyan, Vitalie Ajder, Volen Arkumarev, Dawn E. Balmer, Hans-Günther Bauer, Colin M. Beale, Taulant Bino, Kerem Ali Boyla, Ian J. Burfield, Brian Burke, Brian Caffrey, Tomasz Chodkiewicz, Juan Carlos Moral, Vlatka Dumbovic Mazal, Néstor Fernández, Lorenzo Fornasari, Bettina Gerlach, Carlos Godinho, Sergi Herrando, Christina Ieronymidou, Alison Johnston, Mihailo Jovicevic, Mikhail Kalyakin, Verena Keller, Peter Knaus, Dražen Kotrošan, Tatiana Kuzmenko, Domingos Leitão, Åke Lindström, Qenan Maxhuni, Tomaž Mihelič, Tibor Mikuska, Blas Molina, Károly Nagy, David Noble, Ingar Jostein Øien, Jean-Yves Paquet, Clara Pladevall, Danae Portolou, Dimitrije Radišić, Saša Rajkov, Draženko Z. Rajković, Liutauras Raudonikis, Thomas Sattler, Darko Saveljić, Paul Shimmings, Jovica Sjenicic, Karel Šťastný, Stoycho Stoychev, Iurii Strus, Christoph Sudfeldt, Elchin Sultanov, Tibor Szép, Norbert Teufelbauer, Danka Uzunova, Chris A. M. Turnhout, Metodija Velevski, Thomas Vikstrøm, Alexandre Vintchevski, Olga Voltzit, Petr Voříšek, Tomasz Wilk, Damaris Zurell, Lluís Brotons, Aleksi Lehikoinen and Stephen G. Willis ()
Additional contact information
Christine Howard: Durham University
Emma-Liina Marjakangas: University of Helsinki
Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez: Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF)
Pietro Milanesi: Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1
Aleksandre Abuladze: Ilia State University
Karen Aghababyan: BirdLinks Armenia (former TSE—Towards Sustainable Ecosystems) NGO
Vitalie Ajder: Society for Birds and Nature Protection
Volen Arkumarev: Bulgarian Society for the Protection of Birds/BirdLife Bulgaria
Dawn E. Balmer: British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford
Hans-Günther Bauer: Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council
Colin M. Beale: University of York
Taulant Bino: Albanian Ornithological Society, Rr. “Vaso Pasha”
Kerem Ali Boyla: WWF Turkey, Büyük Postane Caddesi No: 19 Kat: 5
Ian J. Burfield: BirdLife International, David Attenborough Building
Brian Burke: Bullford Business Campus, Kilcoole, Greystones
Brian Caffrey: Bullford Business Campus, Kilcoole, Greystones
Tomasz Chodkiewicz: Polish Academy of Sciences
Juan Carlos Moral: Sociedad Española de Ornitología (SEO/BirdLife)
Vlatka Dumbovic Mazal: Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development
Néstor Fernández: German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig
Lorenzo Fornasari: Associazione FaunaViva, Via Fumagalli 6
Bettina Gerlach: DDA—Federation of German Avifaunists
Carlos Godinho: Environment and Development; LabOr—Laboratório de Ornitologia Universidade de Évora Pólo da Mitra
Sergi Herrando: Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF)
Christina Ieronymidou: BirdLife Cyprus
Alison Johnston: University of St Andrews
Mihailo Jovicevic: Pro Natura, Donji Crnci bb
Mikhail Kalyakin: Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council
Verena Keller: Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1
Peter Knaus: Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1
Dražen Kotrošan: Ornithological society “Naše ptice”
Tatiana Kuzmenko: Ukrainian Society for the Protection of Birds
Domingos Leitão: Sociedade Portuguesa para o Estudo das Aves
Åke Lindström: Lund University
Qenan Maxhuni: Kosovo Ornithological Society
Tomaž Mihelič: DOPPS—BirdLife Slovenia
Tibor Mikuska: Croatian Society for Birds and Nature Protection
Blas Molina: Sociedad Española de Ornitología (SEO/BirdLife)
Károly Nagy: MME BirdLife Hungary
David Noble: British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford
Ingar Jostein Øien: BirdLife Norway. Sandgata 30b
Jean-Yves Paquet: Natagora, Traverse des muses 1
Clara Pladevall: Andorra Research + Innovation
Danae Portolou: Hellenic Ornithological Society / BirdLife Greece
Dimitrije Radišić: University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Biology and Ecology, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3
Saša Rajkov: Center for Biodiversity Research
Draženko Z. Rajković: Center for Biodiversity Research
Liutauras Raudonikis: Lithuanian Ornithological Society
Thomas Sattler: Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1
Darko Saveljić: Environmental Protection Agency of Montenegro
Paul Shimmings: BirdLife Norway. Sandgata 30b
Jovica Sjenicic: Ornithological society “Naše ptice”
Karel Šťastný: Czech University of Life Sciences, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Dept. of Ecology
Stoycho Stoychev: Bulgarian Society for the Protection of Birds/BirdLife Bulgaria
Iurii Strus: Nature reserve “Roztochya”
Christoph Sudfeldt: DDA—Federation of German Avifaunists
Elchin Sultanov: Azerbaijan Ornithological Society
Tibor Szép: MME BirdLife Hungary
Norbert Teufelbauer: BirdLife Österreich
Danka Uzunova: Macedonian Ecological Society
Chris A. M. Turnhout: Sovon—Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology
Metodija Velevski: Macedonian Ecological Society
Thomas Vikstrøm: Dansk Ornitologisk Forening (DOF—BirdLife DK)
Alexandre Vintchevski: TAA “Dzikaja pryroda”
Olga Voltzit: Zoological Museum of Lomonosov Moscow State University
Petr Voříšek: Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council
Tomasz Wilk: Polish Society for the Protection of Birds
Damaris Zurell: University of Potsdam
Lluís Brotons: Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF)
Aleksi Lehikoinen: University of Helsinki
Stephen G. Willis: Durham University

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species’ traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species’ range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species’ ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1

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