Natural history of long-COVID in a nationwide, population cohort study

Claire E. Hastie, David J. Lowe, Andrew McAuley, Nicholas L. Mills, Andrew J. Winter, Corri Black, Janet T. Scott, Catherine A. O’Donnell, David N. Blane, Susan Browne, Tracy R. Ibbotson and Jill P. Pell ()
Additional contact information
Claire E. Hastie: University of Glasgow G12 8TB
David J. Lowe: University of Glasgow G12 8TB
Andrew McAuley: Public Health Scotland, Meridian Court
Nicholas L. Mills: University of Edinburgh
Andrew J. Winter: NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde
Corri Black: University of Aberdeen AB25 2ZD
Janet T. Scott: University of Glasgow
Catherine A. O’Donnell: University of Glasgow G12 8TB
David N. Blane: University of Glasgow G12 8TB
Susan Browne: University of Glasgow G12 8TB
Tracy R. Ibbotson: University of Glasgow G12 8TB
Jill P. Pell: University of Glasgow G12 8TB

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Previous studies on the natural history of long-COVID have been few and selective. Without comparison groups, disease progression cannot be differentiated from symptoms originating from other causes. The Long-COVID in Scotland Study (Long-CISS) is a Scotland-wide, general population cohort of adults who had laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection matched to PCR-negative adults. Serial, self-completed, online questionnaires collected information on pre-existing health conditions and current health six, 12 and 18 months after index test. Of those with previous symptomatic infection, 35% reported persistent incomplete/no recovery, 12% improvement and 12% deterioration. At six and 12 months, one or more symptom was reported by 71.5% and 70.7% respectively of those previously infected, compared with 53.5% and 56.5% of those never infected. Altered taste, smell and confusion improved over time compared to the never infected group and adjusted for confounders. Conversely, late onset dry and productive cough, and hearing problems were more likely following SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39193-y

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