Climate-driven changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation

Phong V. V. Le (), James T. Randerson, Rebecca Willett, Stephen Wright, Padhraic Smyth, Clément Guilloteau, Antonios Mamalakis and Efi Foufoula-Georgiou ()
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Phong V. V. Le: Oak Ridge National Laboratory
James T. Randerson: University of California
Rebecca Willett: University of Chicago
Stephen Wright: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Padhraic Smyth: University of California
Clément Guilloteau: University of California
Antonios Mamalakis: Colorado State University
Efi Foufoula-Georgiou: University of California

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Climate-driven changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonal variability are expected in many continental-scale regions during the remainder of the 21st century. However, much less is known about future changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation, an important earth system property relevant for climate adaptation. Here, on the basis of CMIP6 models that capture the present-day teleconnections between seasonal precipitation and previous-season sea surface temperature (SST), we show that climate change is expected to alter the SST-precipitation relationships and thus our ability to predict seasonal precipitation by 2100. Specifically, in the tropics, seasonal precipitation predictability from SSTs is projected to increase throughout the year, except the northern Amazonia during boreal winter. Concurrently, in the extra-tropics predictability is likely to increase in central Asia during boreal spring and winter. The altered predictability, together with enhanced interannual variability of seasonal precipitation, poses new opportunities and challenges for regional water management.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39463-9

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