Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome

Mariana García Criado (), Isla H. Myers-Smith, Anne D. Bjorkman, Signe Normand, Anne Blach-Overgaard, Haydn J. D. Thomas, Anu Eskelinen, Konsta Happonen, Juha M. Alatalo, Alba Anadon-Rosell, Isabelle Aubin, Mariska Beest, Katlyn R. Betway-May, Daan Blok, Allan Buras, Bruno E. L. Cerabolini, Katherine Christie, J. Hans C. Cornelissen, Bruce C. Forbes, Esther R. Frei, Paul Grogan, Luise Hermanutz, Robert D. Hollister, James Hudson, Maitane Iturrate-Garcia, Elina Kaarlejärvi, Michael Kleyer, Laurent J. Lamarque, Jonas J. Lembrechts, Esther Lévesque, Miska Luoto, Petr Macek, Jeremy L. May, Janet S. Prevéy, Gabriela Schaepman-Strub, Serge N. Sheremetiev, Laura Siegwart Collier, Nadejda A. Soudzilovskaia, Andrew Trant, Susanna E. Venn and Anna-Maria Virkkala
Additional contact information
Mariana García Criado: University of Edinburgh
Isla H. Myers-Smith: University of Edinburgh
Anne D. Bjorkman: University of Gothenburg
Signe Normand: Aarhus University
Anne Blach-Overgaard: Aarhus University
Haydn J. D. Thomas: University of Edinburgh
Anu Eskelinen: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ
Konsta Happonen: University of Gothenburg
Juha M. Alatalo: Qatar University
Alba Anadon-Rosell: Cerdanyola del Vallès
Isabelle Aubin: Great Lakes Forestry Centre
Mariska Beest: Utrecht University
Katlyn R. Betway-May: Grand Valley State University
Daan Blok: Dutch Research Council (NWO)
Allan Buras: School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan
Bruno E. L. Cerabolini: University of Insubria
Katherine Christie: Threatened, Endangered, and Diversity Program, Alaska Department of Fish and Game
J. Hans C. Cornelissen: Vrije Universiteit
Bruce C. Forbes: University of Lapland
Esther R. Frei: WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF
Paul Grogan: Queen’s University, Kingston
Luise Hermanutz: Memorial University
Robert D. Hollister: Grand Valley State University
James Hudson: Government of British Columbia
Maitane Iturrate-Garcia: Federal Institute of Metrology METAS
Elina Kaarlejärvi: University of Helsinki
Michael Kleyer: University of Oldenburg
Laurent J. Lamarque: Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, Trois-Rivières
Jonas J. Lembrechts: University of Antwerp
Esther Lévesque: Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, Trois-Rivières
Miska Luoto: University of Helsinki
Petr Macek: Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences
Jeremy L. May: Florida International University
Janet S. Prevéy: WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF
Gabriela Schaepman-Strub: University of Zurich
Serge N. Sheremetiev: Komarov Botanical Institute
Laura Siegwart Collier: Memorial University
Nadejda A. Soudzilovskaia: Hasselt University
Andrew Trant: University of Waterloo
Susanna E. Venn: Deakin University
Anna-Maria Virkkala: University of Helsinki

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-17

Abstract: Abstract Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39573-4

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