Estimating long-term vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based approach

Alexandra B. Hogan, Patrick Doohan, Sean L. Wu, Daniela Olivera Mesa, Jaspreet Toor, Oliver J. Watson, Peter Winskill, Giovanni Charles, Gregory Barnsley, Eleanor M. Riley, David S. Khoury, Neil M. Ferguson and Azra C. Ghani ()
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Alexandra B. Hogan: University of New South Wales
Patrick Doohan: School of Public Health, Imperial College London
Sean L. Wu: University of Washington
Daniela Olivera Mesa: School of Public Health, Imperial College London
Jaspreet Toor: School of Public Health, Imperial College London
Oliver J. Watson: School of Public Health, Imperial College London
Peter Winskill: School of Public Health, Imperial College London
Giovanni Charles: School of Public Health, Imperial College London
Gregory Barnsley: School of Public Health, Imperial College London
Eleanor M. Riley: University of Edinburgh
David S. Khoury: University of New South Wales
Neil M. Ferguson: School of Public Health, Imperial College London
Azra C. Ghani: School of Public Health, Imperial College London

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract With the ongoing evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus updated vaccines may be needed. We fitted a model linking immunity levels and protection to vaccine effectiveness data from England for three vaccines (Oxford/AstraZeneca AZD1222, Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2, Moderna mRNA-1273) and two variants (Delta, Omicron). Our model reproduces the observed sustained protection against hospitalisation and death from the Omicron variant over the first six months following dose 3 with the ancestral vaccines but projects a gradual waning to moderate protection after 1 year. Switching the fourth dose to a variant-matched vaccine against Omicron BA.1/2 is projected to prevent nearly twice as many hospitalisations and deaths over a 1-year period compared to administering the ancestral vaccine. This result is sensitive to the degree to which immunogenicity data can be used to predict vaccine effectiveness and uncertainty regarding the impact that infection-induced immunity (not captured here) may play in modifying future vaccine effectiveness.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39736-3

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