Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality

Samuel Lüthi (), Christopher Fairless, Erich M. Fischer, Noah Scovronick, Armstrong, Micheline De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Yue Leon Guo, Yuming Guo, Yasushi Honda, Veronika Huber, Jan Kyselý, Eric Lavigne, Dominic Royé, Niilo Ryti, Susana Silva, Aleš Urban, Antonio Gasparrini, David N. Bresch and Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera ()
Additional contact information
Samuel Lüthi: ETH Zurich
Christopher Fairless: ETH Zurich
Erich M. Fischer: ETH Zurich
Noah Scovronick: Emory University
Armstrong: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Micheline De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho: University of São Paulo
Yue Leon Guo: National Taiwan University (NTU) College of Medicine and NTU Hospital
Yuming Guo: Monash University
Yasushi Honda: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Veronika Huber: IBE-Chair of Epidemiology, LMU Munich
Jan Kyselý: Czech Academy of Sciences
Eric Lavigne: University of Ottawa
Dominic Royé: CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health
Niilo Ryti: University of Oulu
Susana Silva: Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge
Aleš Urban: Czech Academy of Sciences
Antonio Gasparrini: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
David N. Bresch: ETH Zurich
Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera: University of Bern

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Heat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses largely on how heat mortality increases with mean global temperature rise, but it is unclear how much climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme summer seasons with high impact on human health. In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries with climate model large ensemble data to identify probable past and future highly impactful summer seasons. Across most locations, heat mortality counts of a 1-in-100 year season in the climate of 2000 would be expected once every ten to twenty years in the climate of 2020. These return periods are projected to further shorten under warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, where heat-mortality extremes of the past climate will eventually become commonplace if no adaptation occurs. Our findings highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation and adaptation to reduce impacts on human lives.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40599-x

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