Effects of public-health measures for zeroing out different SARS-CoV-2 variants

Yong Ge (), Xilin Wu, Wenbin Zhang, Xiaoli Wang, Die Zhang, Jianghao Wang, Haiyan Liu, Zhoupeng Ren, Nick W. Ruktanonchai, Corrine W. Ruktanonchai, Eimear Cleary, Yongcheng Yao, Amy Wesolowski, Derek A. T. Cummings, Zhongjie Li, Andrew J. Tatem and Shengjie Lai ()
Additional contact information
Yong Ge: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xilin Wu: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Wenbin Zhang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xiaoli Wang: Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control
Die Zhang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jianghao Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Haiyan Liu: Marine Data Center, Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
Zhoupeng Ren: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Nick W. Ruktanonchai: Virginia Tech
Corrine W. Ruktanonchai: Virginia Tech
Eimear Cleary: University of Southampton
Yongcheng Yao: University of Southampton
Amy Wesolowski: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Derek A. T. Cummings: University of Florida
Zhongjie Li: Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College
Andrew J. Tatem: University of Southampton
Shengjie Lai: University of Southampton

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Targeted public health interventions for an emerging epidemic are essential for preventing pandemics. During 2020-2022, China invested significant efforts in strict zero-COVID measures to contain outbreaks of varying scales caused by different SARS-CoV-2 variants. Based on a multi-year empirical dataset containing 131 outbreaks observed in China from April 2020 to May 2022 and simulated scenarios, we ranked the relative intervention effectiveness by their reduction in instantaneous reproduction number. We found that, overall, social distancing measures (38% reduction, 95% prediction interval 31-45%), face masks (30%, 17-42%) and close contact tracing (28%, 24-31%) were most effective. Contact tracing was crucial in containing outbreaks during the initial phases, while social distancing measures became increasingly prominent as the spread persisted. In addition, infections with higher transmissibility and a shorter latent period posed more challenges for these measures. Our findings provide quantitative evidence on the effects of public-health measures for zeroing out emerging contagions in different contexts.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40940-4

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