Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models

Xianan Jiang (), Hui Su, Jonathan H. Jiang, J. David Neelin, Longtao Wu, Yoko Tsushima and Gregory Elsaesser
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Xianan Jiang: University of California, Los Angeles
Hui Su: University of California, Los Angeles
Jonathan H. Jiang: California Institute of Technology
J. David Neelin: University of California, Los Angeles
Longtao Wu: California Institute of Technology
Yoko Tsushima: Met Office Hadley Centre
Gregory Elsaesser: Columbia University

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract A large spread in model estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), defined as the global mean near-surface air-temperature increase following a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration, leaves us greatly disadvantaged in guiding policy-making for climate change adaptation and mitigation. In this study, we show that the projected ECS in the latest generation of climate models is highly related to seasonal variations of extratropical low-cloud fraction (LCF) in historical simulations. Marked reduction of extratropical LCF from winter to summer is found in models with ECS > 4.75 K, in accordance with the significant reduction of extratropical LCF under a warming climate in these models. In contrast, a pronounced seasonal cycle of extratropical LCF, as supported by satellite observations, is largely absent in models with ECS

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41360-0

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