The impact of methane leakage on the role of natural gas in the European energy transition

Behrang Shirizadeh, Manuel Villavicencio, Sebastien Douguet, Johannes Trüby, Charbel Bou Issa, Gondia Sokhna Seck, Vincent D’herbemont, Emmanuel Hache, Louis-Marie Malbec, Jerome Sabathier, Malavika Venugopal, Fanny Lagrange, Stephanie Saunier, Julian Straus and Gunhild A. Reigstad
Additional contact information
Manuel Villavicencio: 6 Place de La Pyramide Tour Majunga Deloitte
Sebastien Douguet: 6 Place de La Pyramide Tour Majunga Deloitte
Johannes Trüby: 6 Place de La Pyramide Tour Majunga Deloitte
Charbel Bou Issa: 6 Place de La Pyramide Tour Majunga Deloitte
Gondia Sokhna Seck: IFP Energies Nouvelles, 1-4 Avenue Bois Preau
Vincent D’herbemont: IFP Energies Nouvelles, 1-4 Avenue Bois Preau
Louis-Marie Malbec: IFP Energies Nouvelles, 1-4 Avenue Bois Preau
Jerome Sabathier: IFP Energies Nouvelles, 1-4 Avenue Bois Preau
Malavika Venugopal: Carbon Limits, C. J. Hambros plass 2
Fanny Lagrange: Carbon Limits, C. J. Hambros plass 2
Stephanie Saunier: Carbon Limits, C. J. Hambros plass 2
Julian Straus: SINTEF Energy Research, Sem Sælands Vei 11
Gunhild A. Reigstad: SINTEF Energy Research, Sem Sælands Vei 11
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Johannes Trueby

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Decarbonising energy systems is a prevalent topic in the current literature on climate change mitigation, but the additional climate burden caused by methane emissions along the natural gas value chain is rarely discussed at the system level. Considering a two-basket greenhouse gas neutrality objective (both CO2 and methane), we model cost-optimal European energy transition pathways towards 2050. Our analysis shows that adoption of best available methane abatement technologies can entail an 80% reduction in methane leakage, limiting the additional environmental burden to 8% of direct CO2 emissions (vs. 35% today). We show that, while renewable energy sources are key drivers of climate neutrality, the role of natural gas strongly depends on actions to abate both associated CO2 and methane emissions. Moreover, clean hydrogen (produced mainly from renewables) can replace natural gas in a substantial proportion of its end-uses, satisfying nearly a quarter of final energy demand in a climate-neutral Europe.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41527-9

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