Carbon intensity of global crude oil trading and market policy implications

Yash Dixit, Hassan El-Houjeiri, Jean-Christophe Monfort, Liang Jing, Yiqi Zhang, James Littlefield, Wennan Long, Christoph Falter, Alhassan Badahdah, Joule Bergerson, Raymond L. Speth () and Steven R. H. Barrett
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Yash Dixit: MIT
Hassan El-Houjeiri: Energy Traceability Technology, Technology Strategy and Planning Department, Aramco
Jean-Christophe Monfort: Energy Traceability Technology, Technology Strategy and Planning Department, Aramco
Liang Jing: University of Calgary
Yiqi Zhang: The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
James Littlefield: Climate and Sustainability Group, Aramco Research Center–Detroit, Aramco Americas
Wennan Long: Stanford University
Christoph Falter: MIT
Alhassan Badahdah: Energy Traceability Technology, Technology Strategy and Planning Department, Aramco
Joule Bergerson: University of Calgary
Raymond L. Speth: MIT
Steven R. H. Barrett: MIT

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract The energy mix transition has accelerated the need for more accurate emissions reporting throughout the petroleum supply chain. Despite increasing environmental regulations and pressure for emissions disclosure, the low resolution of existing carbon footprint assessment does not account for the complexity of crude oil trading. The lack of source crude traceability has led to poor visibility into the “well-to-refinery-entrance” carbon intensities at the level of granular pathways between producers and destination markets. Using high-fidelity datasets, optimization algorithms to facilitate supply chain traceability and bottom-up, physics-based emission estimators, we show that the variability in global “well-to-refinery-entrance” carbon intensities at the level of crude trade pathways is significant: 4.2–214.1 kg-CO2-equivalent/barrel with a volume-weighted average of 50.5 kg-CO2-equivalent/barrel. Coupled with oil supply forecasts under 1.5 °C scenarios up to 2050, this variability translates to additional CO2-equivalent savings of 1.5–6.1 Gigatons that could be realized solely by prioritizing low-carbon supply chain pathways without other capital-intensive mitigation measures.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41701-z

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