Thermal sensitivity of field metabolic rate predicts differential futures for bluefin tuna juveniles across the Atlantic Ocean

Clive N. Trueman (), Iraide Artetxe-Arrate, Lisa A. Kerr, Andrew J. S. Meijers, Jay R. Rooker, Rahul Sivankutty, Haritz Arrizabalaga, Antonio Belmonte, Simeon Deguara, Nicolas Goñi, Enrique Rodriguez-Marin, David L. Dettman, Miguel Neves Santos, F. Saadet Karakulak, Fausto Tinti, Yohei Tsukahara and Igaratza Fraile
Additional contact information
Clive N. Trueman: University of Southampton
Iraide Artetxe-Arrate: Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA)
Lisa A. Kerr: University of Maine, Gulf of Maine Research Institute
Andrew J. S. Meijers: British Antarctic Survey, High Cross
Jay R. Rooker: Texas A&M University
Rahul Sivankutty: British Antarctic Survey, High Cross
Haritz Arrizabalaga: Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA)
Antonio Belmonte: TAXON Estudios Ambientales S.L. C/Uruguay s/n
Simeon Deguara: AquaBio Tech Ltd., Central Complex
Nicolas Goñi: Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA)
Enrique Rodriguez-Marin: Centro Oceanográfico de Santander (COST-IEO). Instituto Español de Oceanografía. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IEO-CSIC)
David L. Dettman: University of Arizona
Miguel Neves Santos: Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, Olhão, Portugal. Currently at ICCAT Secretariat
F. Saadet Karakulak: Istanbul University
Fausto Tinti: Alma Mater Studiorum - University of Bologna, via Sant’Alberto
Yohei Tsukahara: Fisheries Resources Institute, Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency
Igaratza Fraile: Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA)

Nature Communications, 2023, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Changing environmental temperatures impact the physiological performance of fishes, and consequently their distributions. A mechanistic understanding of the linkages between experienced temperature and the physiological response expressed within complex natural environments is often lacking, hampering efforts to project impacts especially when future conditions exceed previous experience. In this study, we use natural chemical tracers to determine the individual experienced temperatures and expressed field metabolic rates of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) during their first year of life. Our findings reveal that the tuna exhibit a preference for temperatures 2–4 °C lower than those that maximise field metabolic rates, thereby avoiding temperatures warm enough to limit metabolic performance. Based on current IPCC projections, our results indicate that historically-important spawning and nursery grounds for bluefin tuna will become thermally limiting due to warming within the next 50 years. However, limiting global warming to below 2 °C would preserve habitat conditions in the Mediterranean Sea for this species. Our approach, which is based on field observations, provides predictions of animal performance and behaviour that are not constrained by laboratory conditions, and can be extended to any marine teleost species for which otoliths are available.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41930-2

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